Sps Commerce Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 186.17
| SPSC Stock | USD 188.32 1.98 1.04% |
SPS |
SPS Commerce Target Price Odds to finish below 186.17
The tendency of SPS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 186.17 or more in 90 days |
| 188.32 | 90 days | 186.17 | about 39.74 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of SPS Commerce to drop to $ 186.17 or more in 90 days from now is about 39.74 (This SPS Commerce probability density function shows the probability of SPS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of SPS Commerce price to stay between $ 186.17 and its current price of $188.32 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.52 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.71 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, SPS Commerce will likely underperform. Additionally SPS Commerce has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. SPS Commerce Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for SPS Commerce
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SPS Commerce. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SPS Commerce's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
SPS Commerce Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. SPS Commerce is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the SPS Commerce's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold SPS Commerce, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of SPS Commerce within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.71 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.91 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
SPS Commerce Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of SPS Commerce for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for SPS Commerce can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| SPS Commerce generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| SPS Commerce is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| SPS Commerce has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Insiders At SPS Commerce Sold US4.6m In Stock, Alluding To Potential Weakness |
SPS Commerce Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of SPS Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential SPS Commerce's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. SPS Commerce's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 275.4 M |
SPS Commerce Technical Analysis
SPS Commerce's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. SPS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of SPS Commerce. In general, you should focus on analyzing SPS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
SPS Commerce Predictive Forecast Models
SPS Commerce's time-series forecasting models is one of many SPS Commerce's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary SPS Commerce's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about SPS Commerce
Checking the ongoing alerts about SPS Commerce for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for SPS Commerce help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| SPS Commerce generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| SPS Commerce is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| SPS Commerce has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Insiders At SPS Commerce Sold US4.6m In Stock, Alluding To Potential Weakness |
Check out SPS Commerce Backtesting, SPS Commerce Valuation, SPS Commerce Correlation, SPS Commerce Hype Analysis, SPS Commerce Volatility, SPS Commerce History as well as SPS Commerce Performance. For information on how to trade SPS Stock refer to our How to Trade SPS Stock guide.You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SPS Commerce. If investors know SPS will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about SPS Commerce listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.378 | Earnings Share 2.09 | Revenue Per Share 16.49 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.207 | Return On Assets 0.0607 |
The market value of SPS Commerce is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SPS that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SPS Commerce's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SPS Commerce's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SPS Commerce's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SPS Commerce's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SPS Commerce's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SPS Commerce is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SPS Commerce's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.