Semtech Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 17.57
| SMTC Stock | USD 63.55 0.03 0.05% |
Semtech |
Semtech Target Price Odds to finish below 17.57
The tendency of Semtech Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 17.57 or more in 90 days |
| 63.55 | 90 days | 17.57 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Semtech to drop to $ 17.57 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Semtech probability density function shows the probability of Semtech Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Semtech price to stay between $ 17.57 and its current price of $63.55 at the end of the 90-day period is about 91.86 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.38 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Semtech will likely underperform. Additionally Semtech has an alpha of 0.5214, implying that it can generate a 0.52 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Semtech Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Semtech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Semtech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Semtech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Semtech Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Semtech is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Semtech's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Semtech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Semtech within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.52 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Semtech Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Semtech for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Semtech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Semtech appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 868.76 M. Net Loss for the year was (1.09 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 484.22 M. | |
| Semtech currently holds about 376.07 M in cash with (93.92 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.92. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Insider Sell Mark Lin Sells Shares of Semtech Corp |
Semtech Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Semtech Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Semtech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Semtech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 64.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 143.1 M |
Semtech Technical Analysis
Semtech's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Semtech Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Semtech. In general, you should focus on analyzing Semtech Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Semtech Predictive Forecast Models
Semtech's time-series forecasting models is one of many Semtech's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Semtech's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Semtech
Checking the ongoing alerts about Semtech for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Semtech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Semtech appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 868.76 M. Net Loss for the year was (1.09 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 484.22 M. | |
| Semtech currently holds about 376.07 M in cash with (93.92 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.92. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Insider Sell Mark Lin Sells Shares of Semtech Corp |
Check out Semtech Backtesting, Semtech Valuation, Semtech Correlation, Semtech Hype Analysis, Semtech Volatility, Semtech History as well as Semtech Performance. For information on how to trade Semtech Stock refer to our How to Trade Semtech Stock guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Semtech. If investors know Semtech will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Semtech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | Earnings Share (12.95) | Revenue Per Share 12.622 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.1) | Return On Assets 0.001 |
The market value of Semtech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Semtech that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Semtech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Semtech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Semtech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Semtech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Semtech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Semtech is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Semtech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.