Simply Good Foods Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 37.56
| SMPL Stock | USD 39.06 0.68 1.71% |
Simply |
Simply Good Target Price Odds to finish below 37.56
The tendency of Simply Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 37.56 or more in 90 days |
| 39.06 | 90 days | 37.56 | about 72.14 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Simply Good to drop to $ 37.56 or more in 90 days from now is about 72.14 (This Simply Good Foods probability density function shows the probability of Simply Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Simply Good Foods price to stay between $ 37.56 and its current price of $39.06 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.49 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Simply Good has a beta of 0.67. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Simply Good average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Simply Good Foods will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Simply Good Foods has an alpha of 0.218, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Simply Good Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Simply Good
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Simply Good Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Simply Good Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Simply Good is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Simply Good's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Simply Good Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Simply Good within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.67 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.62 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
Simply Good Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Simply Good for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Simply Good Foods can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Conagra Gears Up for Q2 Earnings What You Should Understand |
Simply Good Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Simply Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Simply Good's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Simply Good's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 101.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 132.5 M |
Simply Good Technical Analysis
Simply Good's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Simply Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Simply Good Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing Simply Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Simply Good Predictive Forecast Models
Simply Good's time-series forecasting models is one of many Simply Good's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Simply Good's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Simply Good Foods
Checking the ongoing alerts about Simply Good for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Simply Good Foods help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Conagra Gears Up for Q2 Earnings What You Should Understand |
Check out Simply Good Backtesting, Simply Good Valuation, Simply Good Correlation, Simply Good Hype Analysis, Simply Good Volatility, Simply Good History as well as Simply Good Performance. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Packaged Foods & Meats space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Simply Good. If investors know Simply will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Simply Good listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.19) | Earnings Share 1.38 | Revenue Per Share 13.323 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.172 | Return On Assets 0.0631 |
The market value of Simply Good Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Simply that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Simply Good's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Simply Good's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Simply Good's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Simply Good's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Simply Good's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Simply Good is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Simply Good's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.