Safety Insurance (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 67.43

SFN Stock  EUR 79.50  0.40  0.51%   
Safety Insurance's future price is the expected price of Safety Insurance instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Safety Insurance Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Safety Insurance Backtesting, Safety Insurance Valuation, Safety Insurance Correlation, Safety Insurance Hype Analysis, Safety Insurance Volatility, Safety Insurance History as well as Safety Insurance Performance.
  
Please specify Safety Insurance's target price for which you would like Safety Insurance odds to be computed.

Safety Insurance Target Price Odds to finish below 67.43

The tendency of Safety Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to € 67.43  or more in 90 days
 79.50 90 days 67.43 
roughly 2.09
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Safety Insurance to drop to € 67.43  or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.09 (This Safety Insurance Group probability density function shows the probability of Safety Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Safety Insurance price to stay between € 67.43  and its current price of €79.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 91.46 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Safety Insurance has a beta of 0.74. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Safety Insurance average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Safety Insurance Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Safety Insurance Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Safety Insurance Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Safety Insurance

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Safety Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
78.0879.5080.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
69.3370.7587.45
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
75.9777.3978.81
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
77.8978.8479.80
Details

Safety Insurance Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Safety Insurance is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Safety Insurance's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Safety Insurance Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Safety Insurance within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.05
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.74
σ
Overall volatility
3.40
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Safety Insurance Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Safety Insurance for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Safety Insurance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Safety Insurance Group has accumulated 35 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 4.6, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Safety Insurance has a current ratio of 0.37, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Safety Insurance until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Safety Insurance's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Safety Insurance sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Safety to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Safety Insurance's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 84.0% of Safety Insurance shares are owned by institutional investors

Safety Insurance Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Safety Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Safety Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Safety Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding14.8 M

Safety Insurance Technical Analysis

Safety Insurance's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Safety Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Safety Insurance Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Safety Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Safety Insurance Predictive Forecast Models

Safety Insurance's time-series forecasting models is one of many Safety Insurance's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Safety Insurance's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Safety Insurance

Checking the ongoing alerts about Safety Insurance for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Safety Insurance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Safety Insurance Group has accumulated 35 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 4.6, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Safety Insurance has a current ratio of 0.37, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Safety Insurance until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Safety Insurance's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Safety Insurance sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Safety to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Safety Insurance's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 84.0% of Safety Insurance shares are owned by institutional investors

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Safety Stock

When determining whether Safety Insurance is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Safety Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Safety Insurance Group Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Safety Insurance Group Stock:
Please note, there is a significant difference between Safety Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Safety Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Safety Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.