South32 (South Africa) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4277.0
| S32 Stock | 3,828 28.00 0.73% |
South32 |
South32 Target Price Odds to finish below 4277.0
The tendency of South32 Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 4,277 after 90 days |
| 3,828 | 90 days | 4,277 | about 60.72 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of South32 to stay under 4,277 after 90 days from now is about 60.72 (This South32 probability density function shows the probability of South32 Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of South32 price to stay between its current price of 3,828 and 4,277 at the end of the 90-day period is about 57.31 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon South32 has a beta of 0.57. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, South32 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding South32 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally South32 has an alpha of 0.0237, implying that it can generate a 0.0237 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). South32 Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for South32
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as South32. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.South32 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. South32 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the South32's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold South32, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of South32 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 216.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0069 |
South32 Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of South32 Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential South32's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. South32's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.6 B |
South32 Technical Analysis
South32's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. South32 Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of South32. In general, you should focus on analyzing South32 Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
South32 Predictive Forecast Models
South32's time-series forecasting models is one of many South32's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary South32's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards South32 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, South32's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from South32 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in South32 Stock
South32 financial ratios help investors to determine whether South32 Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in South32 with respect to the benefits of owning South32 security.