RTL GROUP (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 34.60
| RRTL Stock | EUR 34.60 0.05 0.14% |
RTL |
RTL GROUP Target Price Odds to finish over 34.60
The tendency of RTL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 34.60 | 90 days | 34.60 | about 1.27 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of RTL GROUP to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 1.27 (This RTL GROUP probability density function shows the probability of RTL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon RTL GROUP has a beta of 0.2 indicating as returns on the market go up, RTL GROUP average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding RTL GROUP will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally RTL GROUP has an alpha of 0.5158, implying that it can generate a 0.52 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). RTL GROUP Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for RTL GROUP
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RTL GROUP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.RTL GROUP Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. RTL GROUP is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the RTL GROUP's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold RTL GROUP, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of RTL GROUP within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.52 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.48 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.41 |
RTL GROUP Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of RTL Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential RTL GROUP's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. RTL GROUP's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 154.7 M | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.098 | |
| Short Term Investments | 1.1 B | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 49 M |
RTL GROUP Technical Analysis
RTL GROUP's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. RTL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of RTL GROUP. In general, you should focus on analyzing RTL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
RTL GROUP Predictive Forecast Models
RTL GROUP's time-series forecasting models is one of many RTL GROUP's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary RTL GROUP's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards RTL GROUP in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, RTL GROUP's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from RTL GROUP options trading.
Additional Tools for RTL Stock Analysis
When running RTL GROUP's price analysis, check to measure RTL GROUP's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy RTL GROUP is operating at the current time. Most of RTL GROUP's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of RTL GROUP's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move RTL GROUP's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of RTL GROUP to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.