RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 118.57
| RGYAS Stock | 120.90 1.20 0.98% |
RONESANS |
RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL Target Price Odds to finish below 118.57
The tendency of RONESANS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 118.57 or more in 90 days |
| 120.90 | 90 days | 118.57 | about 75.8 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL to drop to 118.57 or more in 90 days from now is about 75.8 (This RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL YAT probability density function shows the probability of RONESANS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL YAT price to stay between 118.57 and its current price of 120.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.54 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL has a beta of 0.62 indicating as returns on the market go up, RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL YAT will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL YAT has an alpha of 0.1081, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL YAT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL YAT, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.62 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL Technical Analysis
RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. RONESANS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL YAT. In general, you should focus on analyzing RONESANS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL Predictive Forecast Models
RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's time-series forecasting models is one of many RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from RONESANS GAYRIMENKUL options trading.