Provident Financial Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.17
| PROV Stock | USD 16.44 0.03 0.18% |
Provident |
Provident Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 12.17
The tendency of Provident Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 12.17 or more in 90 days |
| 16.44 | 90 days | 12.17 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Provident Financial to drop to $ 12.17 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Provident Financial Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Provident Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Provident Financial price to stay between $ 12.17 and its current price of $16.44 at the end of the 90-day period is about 91.8 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Provident Financial has a beta of 0.54 indicating as returns on the market go up, Provident Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Provident Financial Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Provident Financial Holdings has an alpha of 0.1658, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Provident Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Provident Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Provident Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Provident Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Provident Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Provident Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Provident Financial Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Provident Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.54 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.79 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Provident Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Provident Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Provident Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 19.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| On 5th of December 2024 Provident Financial paid $ 0.14 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Provident Financials EVP sells 73,080 in common stock - Investing.com |
Provident Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Provident Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Provident Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Provident Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 51.4 M |
Provident Financial Technical Analysis
Provident Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Provident Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Provident Financial Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Provident Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Provident Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Provident Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Provident Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Provident Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Provident Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about Provident Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Provident Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 19.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| On 5th of December 2024 Provident Financial paid $ 0.14 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Provident Financials EVP sells 73,080 in common stock - Investing.com |
Additional Tools for Provident Stock Analysis
When running Provident Financial's price analysis, check to measure Provident Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Provident Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Provident Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Provident Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Provident Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Provident Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.