Altria (Germany) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 50.34
| PHM7 Stock | EUR 50.34 0.98 1.91% |
Altria |
Altria Target Price Odds to finish over 50.34
The tendency of Altria Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 50.34 | 90 days | 50.34 | about 33.43 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Altria to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 33.43 (This Altria Group probability density function shows the probability of Altria Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Altria has a beta of 0.23 indicating as returns on the market go up, Altria average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Altria Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Altria Group has an alpha of 0.2019, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Altria Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Altria
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Altria Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Altria Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Altria is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Altria's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Altria Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Altria within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Altria Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Altria Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Altria's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Altria's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 B | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 1.6 B |
Altria Technical Analysis
Altria's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Altria Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Altria Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Altria Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Altria Predictive Forecast Models
Altria's time-series forecasting models is one of many Altria's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Altria's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Altria in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Altria's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Altria options trading.
Additional Tools for Altria Stock Analysis
When running Altria's price analysis, check to measure Altria's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Altria is operating at the current time. Most of Altria's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Altria's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Altria's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Altria to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.