Empreendimentos Pague (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.35
| PGMN3 Stock | BRL 3.42 0.14 4.27% |
Empreendimentos |
Empreendimentos Pague Target Price Odds to finish below 3.35
The tendency of Empreendimentos Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 3.35 or more in 90 days |
| 3.42 | 90 days | 3.35 | about 87.49 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Empreendimentos Pague to drop to R$ 3.35 or more in 90 days from now is about 87.49 (This Empreendimentos Pague Menos probability density function shows the probability of Empreendimentos Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Empreendimentos Pague price to stay between R$ 3.35 and its current price of R$3.42 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.69 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Empreendimentos Pague has a beta of 0.22 indicating as returns on the market go up, Empreendimentos Pague average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Empreendimentos Pague Menos will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Empreendimentos Pague Menos has an alpha of 0.3739, implying that it can generate a 0.37 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Empreendimentos Pague Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Empreendimentos Pague
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Empreendimentos Pague. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Empreendimentos Pague Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Empreendimentos Pague is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Empreendimentos Pague's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Empreendimentos Pague Menos, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Empreendimentos Pague within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Empreendimentos Pague Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Empreendimentos Pague for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Empreendimentos Pague can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Empreendimentos Pague had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 61.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Empreendimentos Pague Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Empreendimentos Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Empreendimentos Pague's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Empreendimentos Pague's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 441.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 654.1 M |
Empreendimentos Pague Technical Analysis
Empreendimentos Pague's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Empreendimentos Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Empreendimentos Pague Menos. In general, you should focus on analyzing Empreendimentos Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Empreendimentos Pague Predictive Forecast Models
Empreendimentos Pague's time-series forecasting models is one of many Empreendimentos Pague's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Empreendimentos Pague's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Empreendimentos Pague
Checking the ongoing alerts about Empreendimentos Pague for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Empreendimentos Pague help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Empreendimentos Pague had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 61.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for Empreendimentos Stock Analysis
When running Empreendimentos Pague's price analysis, check to measure Empreendimentos Pague's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Empreendimentos Pague is operating at the current time. Most of Empreendimentos Pague's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Empreendimentos Pague's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Empreendimentos Pague's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Empreendimentos Pague to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.