Pegasystems Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 63.63

PEGA Stock  USD 95.24  1.11  1.18%   
Pegasystems' future price is the expected price of Pegasystems instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Pegasystems performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Pegasystems Backtesting, Pegasystems Valuation, Pegasystems Correlation, Pegasystems Hype Analysis, Pegasystems Volatility, Pegasystems History as well as Pegasystems Performance.
For information on how to trade Pegasystems Stock refer to our How to Trade Pegasystems Stock guide.
  
At present, Pegasystems' Price To Sales Ratio is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is expected to grow to 19.59, whereas Price Earnings Ratio is forecasted to decline to 51.45. Please specify Pegasystems' target price for which you would like Pegasystems odds to be computed.

Pegasystems Target Price Odds to finish over 63.63

The tendency of Pegasystems Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 63.63  in 90 days
 95.24 90 days 63.63 
about 97.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Pegasystems to stay above $ 63.63  in 90 days from now is about 97.0 (This Pegasystems probability density function shows the probability of Pegasystems Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Pegasystems price to stay between $ 63.63  and its current price of $95.24 at the end of the 90-day period is about 86.17 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.11 indicating Pegasystems market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Pegasystems is expected to follow. Additionally Pegasystems has an alpha of 0.5182, implying that it can generate a 0.52 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Pegasystems Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Pegasystems

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pegasystems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
92.4194.8997.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
74.5577.03104.76
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
91.3893.8696.34
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
44.3348.7154.07
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Pegasystems. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Pegasystems' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Pegasystems' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Pegasystems.

Pegasystems Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Pegasystems is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Pegasystems' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Pegasystems, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Pegasystems within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.52
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.11
σ
Overall volatility
10.04
Ir
Information ratio 0.21

Pegasystems Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Pegasystems for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Pegasystems can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Pegasystems is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Pegasystems has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 47.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Acquisition by John Higgins of 460 shares of Pegasystems subject to Rule 16b-3

Pegasystems Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Pegasystems Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Pegasystems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pegasystems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding84.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments423.3 M

Pegasystems Technical Analysis

Pegasystems' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Pegasystems Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Pegasystems. In general, you should focus on analyzing Pegasystems Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Pegasystems Predictive Forecast Models

Pegasystems' time-series forecasting models is one of many Pegasystems' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Pegasystems' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Pegasystems

Checking the ongoing alerts about Pegasystems for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Pegasystems help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Pegasystems is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Pegasystems has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 47.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Acquisition by John Higgins of 460 shares of Pegasystems subject to Rule 16b-3
When determining whether Pegasystems offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Pegasystems' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Pegasystems Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Pegasystems Stock:
Check out Pegasystems Backtesting, Pegasystems Valuation, Pegasystems Correlation, Pegasystems Hype Analysis, Pegasystems Volatility, Pegasystems History as well as Pegasystems Performance.
For information on how to trade Pegasystems Stock refer to our How to Trade Pegasystems Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pegasystems. If investors know Pegasystems will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Pegasystems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.849
Dividend Share
0.12
Earnings Share
1.4
Revenue Per Share
17.485
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.03)
The market value of Pegasystems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Pegasystems that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Pegasystems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Pegasystems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Pegasystems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Pegasystems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Pegasystems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Pegasystems is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Pegasystems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.