Puma Biotechnology Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 17.10
| PBYI Stock | USD 3.05 0.08 2.56% |
Puma |
Puma Biotechnology Target Price Odds to finish over 17.10
The tendency of Puma Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 17.10 or more in 90 days |
| 3.05 | 90 days | 17.10 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Puma Biotechnology to move over $ 17.10 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Puma Biotechnology probability density function shows the probability of Puma Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Puma Biotechnology price to stay between its current price of $ 3.05 and $ 17.10 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.31 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Puma Biotechnology has a beta of 0.23 indicating as returns on the market go up, Puma Biotechnology average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Puma Biotechnology will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Puma Biotechnology has an alpha of 0.3999, implying that it can generate a 0.4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Puma Biotechnology Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Puma Biotechnology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Puma Biotechnology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Puma Biotechnology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Puma Biotechnology Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Puma Biotechnology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Puma Biotechnology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Puma Biotechnology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Puma Biotechnology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.40 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.21 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Puma Biotechnology Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Puma Biotechnology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Puma Biotechnology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Puma Biotechnology had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Puma Biotechnology has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: US Penny Stocks With Promise 3 Picks Under 200M Market Cap |
Puma Biotechnology Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Puma Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Puma Biotechnology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Puma Biotechnology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 95.9 M |
Puma Biotechnology Technical Analysis
Puma Biotechnology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Puma Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Puma Biotechnology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Puma Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Puma Biotechnology Predictive Forecast Models
Puma Biotechnology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Puma Biotechnology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Puma Biotechnology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.