Petrleo Brasileiro (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 243.02
| PBRN Stock | MXN 270.02 3.88 1.42% |
Petrleo |
Petrleo Brasileiro Target Price Odds to finish below 243.02
The tendency of Petrleo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 243.02 or more in 90 days |
| 270.02 | 90 days | 243.02 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Petrleo Brasileiro to drop to 243.02 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Petrleo Brasileiro SA probability density function shows the probability of Petrleo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Petrleo Brasileiro price to stay between 243.02 and its current price of 270.02 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.72 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Petrleo Brasileiro has a beta of 0.54 indicating as returns on the market go up, Petrleo Brasileiro average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Petrleo Brasileiro SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Petrleo Brasileiro SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Petrleo Brasileiro Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Petrleo Brasileiro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Petrleo Brasileiro. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Petrleo Brasileiro Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Petrleo Brasileiro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Petrleo Brasileiro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Petrleo Brasileiro SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Petrleo Brasileiro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.54 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.55 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Petrleo Brasileiro Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Petrleo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Petrleo Brasileiro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Petrleo Brasileiro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13 B |
Petrleo Brasileiro Technical Analysis
Petrleo Brasileiro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Petrleo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Petrleo Brasileiro SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Petrleo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Petrleo Brasileiro Predictive Forecast Models
Petrleo Brasileiro's time-series forecasting models is one of many Petrleo Brasileiro's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Petrleo Brasileiro's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Petrleo Brasileiro in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Petrleo Brasileiro's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Petrleo Brasileiro options trading.
Additional Tools for Petrleo Stock Analysis
When running Petrleo Brasileiro's price analysis, check to measure Petrleo Brasileiro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Petrleo Brasileiro is operating at the current time. Most of Petrleo Brasileiro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Petrleo Brasileiro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Petrleo Brasileiro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Petrleo Brasileiro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.