Oak Valley Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.75
| OVLY Stock | USD 27.98 0.37 1.34% |
Oak |
Oak Valley Target Price Odds to finish below 18.75
The tendency of Oak Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 18.75 or more in 90 days |
| 27.98 | 90 days | 18.75 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Oak Valley to drop to $ 18.75 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Oak Valley Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Oak Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Oak Valley Bancorp price to stay between $ 18.75 and its current price of $27.98 at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.86 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.84 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Oak Valley will likely underperform. Additionally Oak Valley Bancorp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Oak Valley Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Oak Valley
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oak Valley Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Oak Valley Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Oak Valley is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Oak Valley's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Oak Valley Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Oak Valley within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.84 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0043 |
Oak Valley Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Oak Valley for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Oak Valley Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Oak Valley Bancorp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Oak Valley Bancorp has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 18.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Oak Valley Community Bank Receives SBA Lending Accolades |
Oak Valley Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Oak Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Oak Valley's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oak Valley's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 69.2 M |
Oak Valley Technical Analysis
Oak Valley's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Oak Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Oak Valley Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Oak Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Oak Valley Predictive Forecast Models
Oak Valley's time-series forecasting models is one of many Oak Valley's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Oak Valley's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Oak Valley Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Oak Valley for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Oak Valley Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Oak Valley Bancorp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Oak Valley Bancorp has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 18.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Oak Valley Community Bank Receives SBA Lending Accolades |
Additional Tools for Oak Stock Analysis
When running Oak Valley's price analysis, check to measure Oak Valley's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oak Valley is operating at the current time. Most of Oak Valley's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oak Valley's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oak Valley's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oak Valley to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.