OReilly Automotive (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 22.04
| ORLY34 Stock | BRL 24.57 0.03 0.12% |
OReilly |
OReilly Automotive Target Price Odds to finish below 22.04
The tendency of OReilly Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 22.04 or more in 90 days |
| 24.57 | 90 days | 22.04 | about 52.11 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of OReilly Automotive to drop to R$ 22.04 or more in 90 days from now is about 52.11 (This OReilly Automotive probability density function shows the probability of OReilly Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of OReilly Automotive price to stay between R$ 22.04 and its current price of R$24.57 at the end of the 90-day period is about 43.04 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon OReilly Automotive has a beta of 0.15. This indicates as returns on the market go up, OReilly Automotive average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding OReilly Automotive will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally OReilly Automotive has an alpha of 0.2958, implying that it can generate a 0.3 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). OReilly Automotive Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for OReilly Automotive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OReilly Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.OReilly Automotive Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. OReilly Automotive is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the OReilly Automotive's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold OReilly Automotive, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of OReilly Automotive within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.30 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
OReilly Automotive Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of OReilly Automotive for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for OReilly Automotive can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| OReilly Automotive has accumulated 3.83 B in total debt. OReilly Automotive has a current ratio of 0.77, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist OReilly Automotive until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, OReilly Automotive's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like OReilly Automotive sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for OReilly to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about OReilly Automotive's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
OReilly Automotive Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of OReilly Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential OReilly Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. OReilly Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 67 M |
OReilly Automotive Technical Analysis
OReilly Automotive's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. OReilly Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of OReilly Automotive. In general, you should focus on analyzing OReilly Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
OReilly Automotive Predictive Forecast Models
OReilly Automotive's time-series forecasting models is one of many OReilly Automotive's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary OReilly Automotive's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about OReilly Automotive
Checking the ongoing alerts about OReilly Automotive for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for OReilly Automotive help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| OReilly Automotive has accumulated 3.83 B in total debt. OReilly Automotive has a current ratio of 0.77, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist OReilly Automotive until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, OReilly Automotive's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like OReilly Automotive sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for OReilly to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about OReilly Automotive's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in OReilly Stock
When determining whether OReilly Automotive offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of OReilly Automotive's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Oreilly Automotive Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Oreilly Automotive Stock:Check out OReilly Automotive Backtesting, OReilly Automotive Valuation, OReilly Automotive Correlation, OReilly Automotive Hype Analysis, OReilly Automotive Volatility, OReilly Automotive History as well as OReilly Automotive Performance. For information on how to trade OReilly Stock refer to our How to Trade OReilly Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.