OReilly Automotive Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

ORLY34 Stock  BRL 24.57  0.03  0.12%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OReilly Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 24.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.15. OReilly Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast OReilly Automotive stock prices and determine the direction of OReilly Automotive's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of OReilly Automotive's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for OReilly Automotive works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

OReilly Automotive Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OReilly Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 24.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.15.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OReilly Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OReilly Automotive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

OReilly Automotive Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest OReilly AutomotiveOReilly Automotive Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

OReilly Automotive Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting OReilly Automotive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OReilly Automotive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.93 and 26.21, respectively. We have considered OReilly Automotive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.57
24.57
Expected Value
26.21
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OReilly Automotive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OReilly Automotive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0768
MADMean absolute deviation0.189
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0083
SAESum of the absolute errors11.15
When OReilly Automotive prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any OReilly Automotive trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent OReilly Automotive observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for OReilly Automotive

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OReilly Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
22.9224.5726.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.4621.1127.03
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
21.0423.2025.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as OReilly Automotive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against OReilly Automotive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, OReilly Automotive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in OReilly Automotive.

Other Forecasting Options for OReilly Automotive

For every potential investor in OReilly, whether a beginner or expert, OReilly Automotive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OReilly Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OReilly. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OReilly Automotive's price trends.

OReilly Automotive Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OReilly Automotive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OReilly Automotive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OReilly Automotive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

OReilly Automotive Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of OReilly Automotive's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of OReilly Automotive's current price.

OReilly Automotive Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OReilly Automotive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OReilly Automotive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OReilly Automotive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify OReilly Automotive entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

OReilly Automotive Risk Indicators

The analysis of OReilly Automotive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OReilly Automotive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oreilly stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in OReilly Stock

When determining whether OReilly Automotive offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of OReilly Automotive's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Oreilly Automotive Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Oreilly Automotive Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OReilly Automotive to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade OReilly Stock refer to our How to Trade OReilly Stock guide.
You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Please note, there is a significant difference between OReilly Automotive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if OReilly Automotive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, OReilly Automotive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.