Monarca Minerals Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 0.0049

ORAGF Stock  USD 0  0.00  0.00%   
Monarca Minerals' future price is the expected price of Monarca Minerals instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Monarca Minerals performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Monarca Minerals Backtesting, Monarca Minerals Valuation, Monarca Minerals Correlation, Monarca Minerals Hype Analysis, Monarca Minerals Volatility, Monarca Minerals History as well as Monarca Minerals Performance.
  
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Monarca Minerals Target Price Odds to finish over 0.0049

The tendency of Monarca Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 0 90 days 0 
about 46.57
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Monarca Minerals to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 46.57 (This Monarca Minerals probability density function shows the probability of Monarca Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Monarca Minerals has a beta of 0.0552. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Monarca Minerals average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Monarca Minerals will be expected to be much smaller as well. Moreover Monarca Minerals has an alpha of 1.29, implying that it can generate a 1.29 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Monarca Minerals Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Monarca Minerals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Monarca Minerals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.0114.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.00014.52
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.000088014.52
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
000.01
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Monarca Minerals. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Monarca Minerals' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Monarca Minerals' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Monarca Minerals.

Monarca Minerals Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Monarca Minerals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Monarca Minerals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Monarca Minerals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Monarca Minerals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
1.29
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.06
σ
Overall volatility
0
Ir
Information ratio 0.08

Monarca Minerals Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Monarca Minerals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Monarca Minerals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Monarca Minerals is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Monarca Minerals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Monarca Minerals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Monarca Minerals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Monarca Minerals has accumulated 1.25 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.12, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Monarca Minerals has a current ratio of 0.09, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Monarca Minerals until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Monarca Minerals' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Monarca Minerals sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Monarca to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Monarca Minerals' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Net Loss for the year was (2.66 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (76.3 K).
Monarca Minerals has accumulated about 77.37 K in cash with (1.77 M) of positive cash flow from operations.

Monarca Minerals Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Monarca Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Monarca Minerals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Monarca Minerals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding126.6 M

Monarca Minerals Technical Analysis

Monarca Minerals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Monarca Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Monarca Minerals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Monarca Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Monarca Minerals Predictive Forecast Models

Monarca Minerals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Monarca Minerals' pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Monarca Minerals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Monarca Minerals

Checking the ongoing alerts about Monarca Minerals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Monarca Minerals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Monarca Minerals is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Monarca Minerals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Monarca Minerals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Monarca Minerals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Monarca Minerals has accumulated 1.25 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.12, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Monarca Minerals has a current ratio of 0.09, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Monarca Minerals until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Monarca Minerals' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Monarca Minerals sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Monarca to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Monarca Minerals' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Net Loss for the year was (2.66 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (76.3 K).
Monarca Minerals has accumulated about 77.37 K in cash with (1.77 M) of positive cash flow from operations.

Other Information on Investing in Monarca Pink Sheet

Monarca Minerals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Monarca Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Monarca with respect to the benefits of owning Monarca Minerals security.