Newell Brands Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 11.45
| NWL Stock | USD 11.01 0.44 3.84% |
Newell |
Newell Brands Target Price Odds to finish over 11.45
The tendency of Newell Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 11.45 or more in 90 days |
| 11.01 | 90 days | 11.45 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Newell Brands to move over $ 11.45 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Newell Brands probability density function shows the probability of Newell Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Newell Brands price to stay between its current price of $ 11.01 and $ 11.45 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.29 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Newell Brands has a beta of 0.72. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Newell Brands average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Newell Brands will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Newell Brands has an alpha of 0.6026, implying that it can generate a 0.6 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Newell Brands Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Newell Brands
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Newell Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Newell Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Newell Brands Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Newell Brands is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Newell Brands' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Newell Brands, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Newell Brands within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.60 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.72 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.23 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
Newell Brands Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Newell Brands for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Newell Brands can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Newell Brands appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 8.13 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (388 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.86 B. | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Newell Brands Target of Unusually Large Options Trading |
Newell Brands Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Newell Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Newell Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Newell Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 414.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 332 M |
Newell Brands Technical Analysis
Newell Brands' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Newell Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Newell Brands. In general, you should focus on analyzing Newell Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Newell Brands Predictive Forecast Models
Newell Brands' time-series forecasting models is one of many Newell Brands' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Newell Brands' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Newell Brands
Checking the ongoing alerts about Newell Brands for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Newell Brands help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Newell Brands appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 8.13 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (388 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.86 B. | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Newell Brands Target of Unusually Large Options Trading |
Check out Newell Brands Backtesting, Newell Brands Valuation, Newell Brands Correlation, Newell Brands Hype Analysis, Newell Brands Volatility, Newell Brands History as well as Newell Brands Performance. For more information on how to buy Newell Stock please use our How to buy in Newell Stock guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Housewares & Specialties space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Newell Brands. If investors know Newell will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Newell Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.71 | Dividend Share 0.28 | Earnings Share (0.60) | Revenue Per Share 18.576 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
The market value of Newell Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Newell that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Newell Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Newell Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Newell Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Newell Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Newell Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Newell Brands is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Newell Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.