Nextsource Materials Stock Probability of Future OTC Stock Price Finishing Over 3.99

NSRCF Stock  USD 0.39  0.04  9.30%   
NextSource Materials' future price is the expected price of NextSource Materials instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of NextSource Materials performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out NextSource Materials Backtesting, NextSource Materials Valuation, NextSource Materials Correlation, NextSource Materials Hype Analysis, NextSource Materials Volatility, NextSource Materials History as well as NextSource Materials Performance.
  
Please specify NextSource Materials' target price for which you would like NextSource Materials odds to be computed.

NextSource Materials Target Price Odds to finish over 3.99

The tendency of NextSource OTC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 3.99  or more in 90 days
 0.39 90 days 3.99 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NextSource Materials to move over $ 3.99  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This NextSource Materials probability density function shows the probability of NextSource OTC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NextSource Materials price to stay between its current price of $ 0.39  and $ 3.99  at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.09 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon NextSource Materials has a beta of -0.23. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding NextSource Materials are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, NextSource Materials is likely to outperform the market. Additionally NextSource Materials has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   NextSource Materials Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for NextSource Materials

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NextSource Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NextSource Materials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.020.394.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.020.344.17
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.010.434.26
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.350.400.44
Details

NextSource Materials Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NextSource Materials is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NextSource Materials' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NextSource Materials, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NextSource Materials within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.37
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.23
σ
Overall volatility
0.04
Ir
Information ratio -0.14

NextSource Materials Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NextSource Materials for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NextSource Materials can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
NextSource Materials generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
NextSource Materials has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
NextSource Materials has high historical volatility and very poor performance
NextSource Materials has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
NextSource Materials has accumulated 349.82 K in total debt. NextSource Materials has a current ratio of 0.42, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist NextSource Materials until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, NextSource Materials' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like NextSource Materials sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for NextSource to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about NextSource Materials' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
NextSource Materials has accumulated about 9.79 M in cash with (1.63 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.1.
Roughly 49.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

NextSource Materials Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of NextSource OTC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential NextSource Materials' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NextSource Materials' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding101.9 M

NextSource Materials Technical Analysis

NextSource Materials' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NextSource OTC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NextSource Materials. In general, you should focus on analyzing NextSource OTC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

NextSource Materials Predictive Forecast Models

NextSource Materials' time-series forecasting models is one of many NextSource Materials' otc stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NextSource Materials' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the otc stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about NextSource Materials

Checking the ongoing alerts about NextSource Materials for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NextSource Materials help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
NextSource Materials generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
NextSource Materials has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
NextSource Materials has high historical volatility and very poor performance
NextSource Materials has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
NextSource Materials has accumulated 349.82 K in total debt. NextSource Materials has a current ratio of 0.42, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist NextSource Materials until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, NextSource Materials' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like NextSource Materials sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for NextSource to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about NextSource Materials' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
NextSource Materials has accumulated about 9.79 M in cash with (1.63 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.1.
Roughly 49.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Other Information on Investing in NextSource OTC Stock

NextSource Materials financial ratios help investors to determine whether NextSource OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in NextSource with respect to the benefits of owning NextSource Materials security.