Noah Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.79
| NOAH Stock | USD 12.79 0.15 1.19% |
Noah |
Noah Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 0.79
The tendency of Noah Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.79 or more in 90 days |
| 12.79 | 90 days | 0.79 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Noah Holdings to drop to $ 0.79 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Noah Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Noah Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Noah Holdings price to stay between $ 0.79 and its current price of $12.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 76.47 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Noah Holdings has a beta of 0.24. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Noah Holdings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Noah Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Noah Holdings has an alpha of 0.7002, implying that it can generate a 0.7 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Noah Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Noah Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Noah Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Noah Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Noah Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Noah Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Noah Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Noah Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.70 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.80 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
Noah Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Noah Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Noah Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Noah Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Noah Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Noah Holdings Ltd Shares Gap Down to 12.64 on Dec 2 |
Noah Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Noah Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Noah Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Noah Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.6 B |
Noah Holdings Technical Analysis
Noah Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Noah Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Noah Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Noah Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Noah Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Noah Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Noah Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Noah Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Noah Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Noah Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Noah Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Noah Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Noah Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Noah Holdings Ltd Shares Gap Down to 12.64 on Dec 2 |
Check out Noah Holdings Backtesting, Noah Holdings Valuation, Noah Holdings Correlation, Noah Holdings Hype Analysis, Noah Holdings Volatility, Noah Holdings History as well as Noah Holdings Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Noah Stock please use our How to Invest in Noah Holdings guide.You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Noah Holdings. If investors know Noah will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Noah Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.69) | Earnings Share 1.35 | Revenue Per Share 40.352 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.35) | Return On Assets 0.0362 |
The market value of Noah Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Noah that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Noah Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Noah Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Noah Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Noah Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Noah Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Noah Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Noah Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.