New Mountain Finance Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.41
| NMFC Stock | USD 11.27 0.09 0.81% |
New |
New Mountain Target Price Odds to finish below 11.41
The tendency of New Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 11.41 after 90 days |
| 11.27 | 90 days | 11.41 | about 62.62 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of New Mountain to stay under $ 11.41 after 90 days from now is about 62.62 (This New Mountain Finance probability density function shows the probability of New Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of New Mountain Finance price to stay between its current price of $ 11.27 and $ 11.41 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.4 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days New Mountain has a beta of 0.44. This indicates as returns on the market go up, New Mountain average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding New Mountain Finance will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally New Mountain Finance has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. New Mountain Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for New Mountain
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Mountain Finance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.New Mountain Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. New Mountain is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the New Mountain's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold New Mountain Finance, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of New Mountain within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
New Mountain Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of New Mountain for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for New Mountain Finance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| New Mountain Finance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| New Mountain Finance is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Klinsky Steven B of 24093 shares of New Mountain at 11.2842 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
New Mountain Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of New Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential New Mountain's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. New Mountain's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 123.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 70.1 M |
New Mountain Technical Analysis
New Mountain's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. New Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of New Mountain Finance. In general, you should focus on analyzing New Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
New Mountain Predictive Forecast Models
New Mountain's time-series forecasting models is one of many New Mountain's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary New Mountain's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about New Mountain Finance
Checking the ongoing alerts about New Mountain for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for New Mountain Finance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| New Mountain Finance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| New Mountain Finance is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Klinsky Steven B of 24093 shares of New Mountain at 11.2842 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out New Mountain Backtesting, New Mountain Valuation, New Mountain Correlation, New Mountain Hype Analysis, New Mountain Volatility, New Mountain History as well as New Mountain Performance. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of New Mountain. If investors know New will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about New Mountain listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.19) | Dividend Share 1.28 | Earnings Share 1.04 | Revenue Per Share 3.557 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.01 |
The market value of New Mountain Finance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of New that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of New Mountain's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is New Mountain's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because New Mountain's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect New Mountain's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between New Mountain's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if New Mountain is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, New Mountain's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.