AURUBIS AG (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 34.39
| NDA1 Stock | EUR 37.80 1.20 3.08% |
AURUBIS |
AURUBIS AG Target Price Odds to finish below 34.39
The tendency of AURUBIS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 34.39 or more in 90 days |
| 37.80 | 90 days | 34.39 | about 44.26 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AURUBIS AG to drop to € 34.39 or more in 90 days from now is about 44.26 (This AURUBIS AG UNSPADR probability density function shows the probability of AURUBIS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AURUBIS AG UNSPADR price to stay between € 34.39 and its current price of €37.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 33.92 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon AURUBIS AG has a beta of 0.17. This indicates as returns on the market go up, AURUBIS AG average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AURUBIS AG UNSPADR will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AURUBIS AG UNSPADR has an alpha of 0.2674, implying that it can generate a 0.27 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AURUBIS AG Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for AURUBIS AG
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AURUBIS AG UNSPADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AURUBIS AG Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AURUBIS AG is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AURUBIS AG's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AURUBIS AG UNSPADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AURUBIS AG within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.69 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
AURUBIS AG Technical Analysis
AURUBIS AG's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AURUBIS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AURUBIS AG UNSPADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing AURUBIS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AURUBIS AG Predictive Forecast Models
AURUBIS AG's time-series forecasting models is one of many AURUBIS AG's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AURUBIS AG's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards AURUBIS AG in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, AURUBIS AG's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from AURUBIS AG options trading.
Other Information on Investing in AURUBIS Stock
AURUBIS AG financial ratios help investors to determine whether AURUBIS Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AURUBIS with respect to the benefits of owning AURUBIS AG security.