Newamsterdam Pharma Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14.07
| NAMSW Stock | 14.47 0.21 1.43% |
NewAmsterdam |
NewAmsterdam Pharma Target Price Odds to finish below 14.07
The tendency of NewAmsterdam Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 14.07 or more in 90 days |
| 14.47 | 90 days | 14.07 | about 92.55 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NewAmsterdam Pharma to drop to 14.07 or more in 90 days from now is about 92.55 (This NewAmsterdam Pharma probability density function shows the probability of NewAmsterdam Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NewAmsterdam Pharma price to stay between 14.07 and its current price of 14.47 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.9 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon NewAmsterdam Pharma has a beta of -0.81. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding NewAmsterdam Pharma are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, NewAmsterdam Pharma is likely to outperform the market. Moreover NewAmsterdam Pharma has an alpha of 1.8552, implying that it can generate a 1.86 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). NewAmsterdam Pharma Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for NewAmsterdam Pharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NewAmsterdam Pharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NewAmsterdam Pharma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NewAmsterdam Pharma Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NewAmsterdam Pharma is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NewAmsterdam Pharma's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NewAmsterdam Pharma, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NewAmsterdam Pharma within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.86 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.81 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
NewAmsterdam Pharma Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NewAmsterdam Pharma for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NewAmsterdam Pharma can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| NewAmsterdam Pharma is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| NewAmsterdam Pharma appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| NewAmsterdam Pharma has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 12.76 M. Net Loss for the year was (176.94 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| NewAmsterdam Pharma generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| NewAmsterdam Pharma has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Smither John W of 10000 shares of NewAmsterdam Pharma at 11.17 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
NewAmsterdam Pharma Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of NewAmsterdam Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential NewAmsterdam Pharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NewAmsterdam Pharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 82.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 340.4 M |
NewAmsterdam Pharma Technical Analysis
NewAmsterdam Pharma's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NewAmsterdam Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NewAmsterdam Pharma. In general, you should focus on analyzing NewAmsterdam Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NewAmsterdam Pharma Predictive Forecast Models
NewAmsterdam Pharma's time-series forecasting models is one of many NewAmsterdam Pharma's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NewAmsterdam Pharma's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about NewAmsterdam Pharma
Checking the ongoing alerts about NewAmsterdam Pharma for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NewAmsterdam Pharma help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| NewAmsterdam Pharma is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| NewAmsterdam Pharma appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| NewAmsterdam Pharma has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 12.76 M. Net Loss for the year was (176.94 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| NewAmsterdam Pharma generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| NewAmsterdam Pharma has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Smither John W of 10000 shares of NewAmsterdam Pharma at 11.17 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Additional Tools for NewAmsterdam Stock Analysis
When running NewAmsterdam Pharma's price analysis, check to measure NewAmsterdam Pharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NewAmsterdam Pharma is operating at the current time. Most of NewAmsterdam Pharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NewAmsterdam Pharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NewAmsterdam Pharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NewAmsterdam Pharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.