Active International Allocation Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 12.23
| MSAAX Fund | USD 15.79 0.03 0.19% |
Active |
Active International Target Price Odds to finish below 12.23
The tendency of Active Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 12.23 or more in 90 days |
| 15.79 | 90 days | 12.23 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Active International to drop to $ 12.23 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Active International Allocation probability density function shows the probability of Active Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Active International price to stay between $ 12.23 and its current price of $15.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.9 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Active International has a beta of 0.25. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Active International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Active International Allocation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Active International Allocation has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Active International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Active International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Active International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Active International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Active International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Active International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Active International Allocation, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Active International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Active International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Active International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Active International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Active International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -2.0% | |
| Active International maintains 98.55% of its assets in stocks |
Active International Technical Analysis
Active International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Active Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Active International Allocation. In general, you should focus on analyzing Active Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Active International Predictive Forecast Models
Active International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Active International's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Active International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Active International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Active International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Active International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Active International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -2.0% | |
| Active International maintains 98.55% of its assets in stocks |
Other Information on Investing in Active Mutual Fund
Active International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Active Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Active with respect to the benefits of owning Active International security.
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