Western Asset Municipal Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Over 7.14
| MHF Fund | USD 7.64 0.11 1.46% |
Western |
Western Asset Target Price Odds to finish over 7.14
The tendency of Western Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 7.14 in 90 days |
| 7.64 | 90 days | 7.14 | about 59.87 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Western Asset to stay above $ 7.14 in 90 days from now is about 59.87 (This Western Asset Municipal probability density function shows the probability of Western Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Western Asset Municipal price to stay between $ 7.14 and its current price of $7.64 at the end of the 90-day period is about 53.64 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Western Asset Municipal has a beta of -0.22. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Western Asset are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Western Asset Municipal is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Western Asset Municipal has an alpha of 0.1999, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Western Asset Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Western Asset
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Western Asset Municipal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Western Asset Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Western Asset is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Western Asset's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Western Asset Municipal, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Western Asset within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.25 |
Western Asset Technical Analysis
Western Asset's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Western Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Western Asset Municipal. In general, you should focus on analyzing Western Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Western Asset Predictive Forecast Models
Western Asset's time-series forecasting models is one of many Western Asset's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Western Asset's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Western Asset in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Western Asset's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Western Asset options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Western Fund
Western Asset financial ratios help investors to determine whether Western Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Western with respect to the benefits of owning Western Asset security.
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