Mfa Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 10.88
| MFA Stock | USD 10.43 0.09 0.86% |
MFA |
MFA Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 10.88
The tendency of MFA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 10.88 or more in 90 days |
| 10.43 | 90 days | 10.88 | about 82.15 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MFA Financial to move over $ 10.88 or more in 90 days from now is about 82.15 (This MFA Financial probability density function shows the probability of MFA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MFA Financial price to stay between its current price of $ 10.43 and $ 10.88 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.34 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon MFA Financial has a beta of 0.14. This indicates as returns on the market go up, MFA Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding MFA Financial will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally MFA Financial has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. MFA Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MFA Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MFA Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MFA Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MFA Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MFA Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MFA Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MFA Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.76 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
MFA Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MFA Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MFA Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MFA Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| MFA Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 69.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: MFA Financial, Inc. Mourns the Death of Board Member Frank Oelerich |
MFA Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MFA Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MFA Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MFA Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 103.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 318 M |
MFA Financial Technical Analysis
MFA Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MFA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MFA Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing MFA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MFA Financial Predictive Forecast Models
MFA Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many MFA Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MFA Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MFA Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about MFA Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MFA Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MFA Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| MFA Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 69.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: MFA Financial, Inc. Mourns the Death of Board Member Frank Oelerich |
Check out MFA Financial Backtesting, MFA Financial Valuation, MFA Financial Correlation, MFA Financial Hype Analysis, MFA Financial Volatility, MFA Financial History as well as MFA Financial Performance. For information on how to trade MFA Stock refer to our How to Trade MFA Stock guide.You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MFA Financial. If investors know MFA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MFA Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.78) | Dividend Share 1.4 | Earnings Share 1.63 | Revenue Per Share 3.551 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 4.999 |
The market value of MFA Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MFA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MFA Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MFA Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MFA Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MFA Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MFA Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MFA Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MFA Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.