Mercan Kimya (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 13.24
| MERCN Stock | 12.10 0.31 2.50% |
Mercan |
Mercan Kimya Target Price Odds to finish below 13.24
The tendency of Mercan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 13.24 after 90 days |
| 12.10 | 90 days | 13.24 | about 44.17 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mercan Kimya to stay under 13.24 after 90 days from now is about 44.17 (This Mercan Kimya Sanayi probability density function shows the probability of Mercan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mercan Kimya Sanayi price to stay between its current price of 12.10 and 13.24 at the end of the 90-day period is about 40.36 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Mercan Kimya Sanayi has a beta of -0.32. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Mercan Kimya are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Mercan Kimya Sanayi is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Mercan Kimya Sanayi has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Mercan Kimya Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Mercan Kimya
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mercan Kimya Sanayi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mercan Kimya Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mercan Kimya is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mercan Kimya's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mercan Kimya Sanayi, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mercan Kimya within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.71 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Mercan Kimya Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mercan Kimya for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mercan Kimya Sanayi can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mercan Kimya Sanayi generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Mercan Kimya Technical Analysis
Mercan Kimya's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mercan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mercan Kimya Sanayi. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mercan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mercan Kimya Predictive Forecast Models
Mercan Kimya's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mercan Kimya's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mercan Kimya's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mercan Kimya Sanayi
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mercan Kimya for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mercan Kimya Sanayi help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mercan Kimya Sanayi generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |