Microchip Technology Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 76.47

MCHP Stock  USD 57.87  2.36  4.25%   
Microchip Technology's future price is the expected price of Microchip Technology instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Microchip Technology performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Microchip Technology Backtesting, Microchip Technology Valuation, Microchip Technology Correlation, Microchip Technology Hype Analysis, Microchip Technology Volatility, Microchip Technology History as well as Microchip Technology Performance.
To learn how to invest in Microchip Stock, please use our How to Invest in Microchip Technology guide.
  
At this time, Microchip Technology's Price Earnings Ratio is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 12/25/2024, Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is likely to grow to 17.19, though Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to grow to (1.79). Please specify Microchip Technology's target price for which you would like Microchip Technology odds to be computed.

Microchip Technology Target Price Odds to finish below 76.47

The tendency of Microchip Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 76.47  after 90 days
 57.87 90 days 76.47 
about 80.36
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Microchip Technology to stay under $ 76.47  after 90 days from now is about 80.36 (This Microchip Technology probability density function shows the probability of Microchip Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Microchip Technology price to stay between its current price of $ 57.87  and $ 76.47  at the end of the 90-day period is about 76.03 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Microchip Technology has a beta of 0.23. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Microchip Technology average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Microchip Technology will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Microchip Technology has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Microchip Technology Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Microchip Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microchip Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
55.6358.1060.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
52.0874.9577.42
Details
25 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
88.4097.14107.83
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.250.290.33
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Microchip Technology. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Microchip Technology's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Microchip Technology's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Microchip Technology.

Microchip Technology Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Microchip Technology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Microchip Technology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Microchip Technology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Microchip Technology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.41
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.23
σ
Overall volatility
7.26
Ir
Information ratio -0.17

Microchip Technology Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Microchip Technology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Microchip Technology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Microchip Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 6th of December 2024 Microchip Technology paid $ 0.455 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Is Microchip Technology Using Too Much Debt

Microchip Technology Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Microchip Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Microchip Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Microchip Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding548 M
Cash And Short Term Investments319.7 M

Microchip Technology Technical Analysis

Microchip Technology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Microchip Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Microchip Technology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Microchip Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Microchip Technology Predictive Forecast Models

Microchip Technology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Microchip Technology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Microchip Technology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Microchip Technology

Checking the ongoing alerts about Microchip Technology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Microchip Technology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Microchip Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 6th of December 2024 Microchip Technology paid $ 0.455 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Is Microchip Technology Using Too Much Debt

Additional Tools for Microchip Stock Analysis

When running Microchip Technology's price analysis, check to measure Microchip Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microchip Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Microchip Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microchip Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microchip Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microchip Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.