Total Return Bond Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 11.16
| MBFCX Fund | USD 11.08 0.02 0.18% |
Total |
Total Return Target Price Odds to finish over 11.16
The tendency of Total Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 11.16 or more in 90 days |
| 11.08 | 90 days | 11.16 | about 82.2 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Total Return to move over $ 11.16 or more in 90 days from now is about 82.2 (This Total Return Bond probability density function shows the probability of Total Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Total Return Bond price to stay between its current price of $ 11.08 and $ 11.16 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.6 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Total Return has a beta of 0.0205. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Total Return average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Total Return Bond will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Total Return Bond has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Total Return Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Total Return
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Total Return Bond. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Total Return's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Total Return Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Total Return is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Total Return's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Total Return Bond, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Total Return within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.29 |
Total Return Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Total Return for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Total Return Bond can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Total Return Bond generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Total Return Bond generated five year return of -1.0% | |
| This fund maintains most of the assets in different exotic instruments. |
Total Return Technical Analysis
Total Return's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Total Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Total Return Bond. In general, you should focus on analyzing Total Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Total Return Predictive Forecast Models
Total Return's time-series forecasting models is one of many Total Return's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Total Return's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Total Return Bond
Checking the ongoing alerts about Total Return for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Total Return Bond help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Total Return Bond generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Total Return Bond generated five year return of -1.0% | |
| This fund maintains most of the assets in different exotic instruments. |
Other Information on Investing in Total Mutual Fund
Total Return financial ratios help investors to determine whether Total Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Total with respect to the benefits of owning Total Return security.
| Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk |