Melar Acquisition Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.25
| MACI Stock | 10.06 0.00 0.00% |
Melar |
Melar Acquisition Target Price Odds to finish below 9.25
The tendency of Melar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 9.25 or more in 90 days |
| 10.06 | 90 days | 9.25 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Melar Acquisition to drop to 9.25 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Melar Acquisition Corp probability density function shows the probability of Melar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Melar Acquisition Corp price to stay between 9.25 and its current price of 10.06 at the end of the 90-day period is about 79.69 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Melar Acquisition Corp has a beta of -0.0371. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Melar Acquisition are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Melar Acquisition Corp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Melar Acquisition Corp has an alpha of 0.0017, implying that it can generate a 0.001739 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Melar Acquisition Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Melar Acquisition
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Melar Acquisition Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Melar Acquisition's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Melar Acquisition Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Melar Acquisition is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Melar Acquisition's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Melar Acquisition Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Melar Acquisition within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Melar Acquisition Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Melar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Melar Acquisition's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Melar Acquisition's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Shares Short Prior Month | 9895 |
Melar Acquisition Technical Analysis
Melar Acquisition's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Melar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Melar Acquisition Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Melar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Melar Acquisition Predictive Forecast Models
Melar Acquisition's time-series forecasting models is one of many Melar Acquisition's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Melar Acquisition's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Melar Acquisition in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Melar Acquisition's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Melar Acquisition options trading.
Check out Melar Acquisition Backtesting, Melar Acquisition Valuation, Melar Acquisition Correlation, Melar Acquisition Hype Analysis, Melar Acquisition Volatility, Melar Acquisition History as well as Melar Acquisition Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Is Financial Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Melar Acquisition. If investors know Melar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Melar Acquisition listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Melar Acquisition Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Melar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Melar Acquisition's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Melar Acquisition's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Melar Acquisition's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Melar Acquisition's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Melar Acquisition's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Melar Acquisition is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Melar Acquisition's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.