Lanka IOC (Sri Lanka) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 122.41
| LIOCN0000 | LKR 126.75 1.00 0.80% |
Lanka |
Lanka IOC Target Price Odds to finish over 122.41
The tendency of Lanka Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 122.41 in 90 days |
| 126.75 | 90 days | 122.41 | about 11.28 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lanka IOC to stay above 122.41 in 90 days from now is about 11.28 (This Lanka IOC PLC probability density function shows the probability of Lanka Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Lanka IOC PLC price to stay between 122.41 and its current price of 126.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.06 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Lanka IOC PLC has a beta of -0.33. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Lanka IOC are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Lanka IOC PLC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Lanka IOC PLC has an alpha of 0.122, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Lanka IOC Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Lanka IOC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lanka IOC PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lanka IOC Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lanka IOC is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lanka IOC's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lanka IOC PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lanka IOC within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.43 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Lanka IOC Technical Analysis
Lanka IOC's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lanka Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lanka IOC PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lanka Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lanka IOC Predictive Forecast Models
Lanka IOC's time-series forecasting models is one of many Lanka IOC's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lanka IOC's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Lanka IOC in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Lanka IOC's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Lanka IOC options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Lanka Stock
Lanka IOC financial ratios help investors to determine whether Lanka Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Lanka with respect to the benefits of owning Lanka IOC security.