Kohat Cement (Pakistan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 216.93
| KOHC Stock | 403.28 1.64 0.41% |
Kohat |
Kohat Cement Target Price Odds to finish over 216.93
The tendency of Kohat Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 216.93 in 90 days |
| 403.28 | 90 days | 216.93 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kohat Cement to stay above 216.93 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Kohat Cement probability density function shows the probability of Kohat Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Kohat Cement price to stay between 216.93 and its current price of 403.28 at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.51 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Kohat Cement has a beta of 0.46. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Kohat Cement average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Kohat Cement will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Kohat Cement has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Kohat Cement Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Kohat Cement
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kohat Cement. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Kohat Cement Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kohat Cement is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kohat Cement's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kohat Cement, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kohat Cement within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0035 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.46 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 19.79 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Kohat Cement Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kohat Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kohat Cement's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kohat Cement's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 200.9 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 549.5 K | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 1.1 B |
Kohat Cement Technical Analysis
Kohat Cement's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kohat Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kohat Cement. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kohat Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Kohat Cement Predictive Forecast Models
Kohat Cement's time-series forecasting models is one of many Kohat Cement's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Kohat Cement's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Kohat Cement in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Kohat Cement's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Kohat Cement options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Kohat Stock
Kohat Cement financial ratios help investors to determine whether Kohat Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Kohat with respect to the benefits of owning Kohat Cement security.