John Keells (Sri Lanka) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 17.7
| KHLN0000 | 18.80 0.30 1.62% |
John |
John Keells Target Price Odds to finish below 17.7
The tendency of John Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 17.70 or more in 90 days |
| 18.80 | 90 days | 17.70 | about 62.77 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of John Keells to drop to 17.70 or more in 90 days from now is about 62.77 (This John Keells Hotels probability density function shows the probability of John Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of John Keells Hotels price to stay between 17.70 and its current price of 18.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.29 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon John Keells Hotels has a beta of -0.14. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding John Keells are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, John Keells Hotels is likely to outperform the market. Additionally John Keells Hotels has an alpha of 0.3289, implying that it can generate a 0.33 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). John Keells Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for John Keells
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as John Keells Hotels. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.John Keells Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. John Keells is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the John Keells' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold John Keells Hotels, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of John Keells within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.33 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.21 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
John Keells Technical Analysis
John Keells' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. John Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of John Keells Hotels. In general, you should focus on analyzing John Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
John Keells Predictive Forecast Models
John Keells' time-series forecasting models is one of many John Keells' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary John Keells' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards John Keells in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, John Keells' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from John Keells options trading.
Other Information on Investing in John Stock
John Keells financial ratios help investors to determine whether John Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in John with respect to the benefits of owning John Keells security.