JPM America (Germany) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 405.09
| JPJA Fund | EUR 431.20 4.45 1.02% |
JPM |
JPM America Target Price Odds to finish below 405.09
The tendency of JPM Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 405.09 or more in 90 days |
| 431.20 | 90 days | 405.09 | about 21.7 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of JPM America to drop to € 405.09 or more in 90 days from now is about 21.7 (This JPM America Equity probability density function shows the probability of JPM Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of JPM America Equity price to stay between € 405.09 and its current price of €431.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 50.41 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon JPM America has a beta of 0.47. This indicates as returns on the market go up, JPM America average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding JPM America Equity will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally JPM America Equity has an alpha of 0.1373, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). JPM America Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for JPM America
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JPM America Equity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.JPM America Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. JPM America is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the JPM America's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold JPM America Equity, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of JPM America within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.47 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 19.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
JPM America Technical Analysis
JPM America's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. JPM Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of JPM America Equity. In general, you should focus on analyzing JPM Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
JPM America Predictive Forecast Models
JPM America's time-series forecasting models is one of many JPM America's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary JPM America's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards JPM America in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, JPM America's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from JPM America options trading.
Other Information on Investing in JPM Fund
JPM America financial ratios help investors to determine whether JPM Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in JPM with respect to the benefits of owning JPM America security.
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