JOSAPAR Joaquim (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 20.48
| JOPA3 Stock | BRL 21.00 0.00 0.00% |
JOSAPAR |
JOSAPAR Joaquim Target Price Odds to finish over 20.48
The tendency of JOSAPAR Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above R$ 20.48 in 90 days |
| 21.00 | 90 days | 20.48 | about 90.59 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of JOSAPAR Joaquim to stay above R$ 20.48 in 90 days from now is about 90.59 (This JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira probability density function shows the probability of JOSAPAR Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira price to stay between R$ 20.48 and its current price of R$21.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 24.91 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon JOSAPAR Joaquim has a beta of 0.16. This indicates as returns on the market go up, JOSAPAR Joaquim average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. JOSAPAR Joaquim Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for JOSAPAR Joaquim
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.JOSAPAR Joaquim Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. JOSAPAR Joaquim is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the JOSAPAR Joaquim's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of JOSAPAR Joaquim within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.57 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
JOSAPAR Joaquim Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of JOSAPAR Joaquim for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| JOSAPAR Joaquim generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| JOSAPAR Joaquim has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira has accumulated about 4.31 M in cash with (45.94 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 43.96, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 74.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
JOSAPAR Joaquim Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of JOSAPAR Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential JOSAPAR Joaquim's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. JOSAPAR Joaquim's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 619.6 M |
JOSAPAR Joaquim Technical Analysis
JOSAPAR Joaquim's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. JOSAPAR Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira. In general, you should focus on analyzing JOSAPAR Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
JOSAPAR Joaquim Predictive Forecast Models
JOSAPAR Joaquim's time-series forecasting models is one of many JOSAPAR Joaquim's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary JOSAPAR Joaquim's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira
Checking the ongoing alerts about JOSAPAR Joaquim for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| JOSAPAR Joaquim generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| JOSAPAR Joaquim has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira has accumulated about 4.31 M in cash with (45.94 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 43.96, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 74.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for JOSAPAR Stock Analysis
When running JOSAPAR Joaquim's price analysis, check to measure JOSAPAR Joaquim's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy JOSAPAR Joaquim is operating at the current time. Most of JOSAPAR Joaquim's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of JOSAPAR Joaquim's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move JOSAPAR Joaquim's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of JOSAPAR Joaquim to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.