JABIL CIRCUIT (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 124.98
| JBL Stock | EUR 127.15 0.90 0.71% |
JABIL |
JABIL CIRCUIT Target Price Odds to finish below 124.98
The tendency of JABIL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 124.98 or more in 90 days |
| 127.15 | 90 days | 124.98 | about 81.79 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of JABIL CIRCUIT to drop to € 124.98 or more in 90 days from now is about 81.79 (This JABIL CIRCUIT probability density function shows the probability of JABIL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of JABIL CIRCUIT price to stay between € 124.98 and its current price of €127.15 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.11 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.29 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, JABIL CIRCUIT will likely underperform. Additionally JABIL CIRCUIT has an alpha of 0.3666, implying that it can generate a 0.37 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). JABIL CIRCUIT Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for JABIL CIRCUIT
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JABIL CIRCUIT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.JABIL CIRCUIT Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. JABIL CIRCUIT is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the JABIL CIRCUIT's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold JABIL CIRCUIT, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of JABIL CIRCUIT within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
JABIL CIRCUIT Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of JABIL Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential JABIL CIRCUIT's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. JABIL CIRCUIT's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 135.5 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 48 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 300 M |
JABIL CIRCUIT Technical Analysis
JABIL CIRCUIT's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. JABIL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of JABIL CIRCUIT. In general, you should focus on analyzing JABIL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
JABIL CIRCUIT Predictive Forecast Models
JABIL CIRCUIT's time-series forecasting models is one of many JABIL CIRCUIT's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary JABIL CIRCUIT's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards JABIL CIRCUIT in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, JABIL CIRCUIT's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from JABIL CIRCUIT options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in JABIL Stock
When determining whether JABIL CIRCUIT is a strong investment it is important to analyze JABIL CIRCUIT's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact JABIL CIRCUIT's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding JABIL Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out JABIL CIRCUIT Backtesting, JABIL CIRCUIT Valuation, JABIL CIRCUIT Correlation, JABIL CIRCUIT Hype Analysis, JABIL CIRCUIT Volatility, JABIL CIRCUIT History as well as JABIL CIRCUIT Performance. For information on how to trade JABIL Stock refer to our How to Trade JABIL Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.