Innovent Biologics Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 4.65
| IVBXF Stock | USD 4.86 0.03 0.62% |
Innovent |
Innovent Biologics Target Price Odds to finish below 4.65
The tendency of Innovent Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 4.65 or more in 90 days |
| 4.86 | 90 days | 4.65 | about 12.74 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Innovent Biologics to drop to $ 4.65 or more in 90 days from now is about 12.74 (This Innovent Biologics probability density function shows the probability of Innovent Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Innovent Biologics price to stay between $ 4.65 and its current price of $4.86 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.97 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Innovent Biologics has a beta of -1.17. This usually indicates as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Innovent Biologics are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Innovent Biologics is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Innovent Biologics has an alpha of 0.0041, implying that it can generate a 0.004134 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Innovent Biologics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Innovent Biologics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Innovent Biologics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Innovent Biologics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Innovent Biologics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Innovent Biologics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Innovent Biologics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Innovent Biologics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Innovent Biologics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.59 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Innovent Biologics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Innovent Biologics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Innovent Biologics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Innovent Biologics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Innovent Biologics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Innovent Biologics has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 4.27 B. Net Loss for the year was (3.14 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.98 B. | |
| Innovent Biologics has accumulated about 8.32 B in cash with (2.02 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.67, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. |
Innovent Biologics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Innovent Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Innovent Biologics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Innovent Biologics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.5 B |
Innovent Biologics Technical Analysis
Innovent Biologics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Innovent Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Innovent Biologics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Innovent Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Innovent Biologics Predictive Forecast Models
Innovent Biologics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Innovent Biologics' pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Innovent Biologics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Innovent Biologics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Innovent Biologics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Innovent Biologics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Innovent Biologics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Innovent Biologics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Innovent Biologics has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 4.27 B. Net Loss for the year was (3.14 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.98 B. | |
| Innovent Biologics has accumulated about 8.32 B in cash with (2.02 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.67, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. |
Other Information on Investing in Innovent Pink Sheet
Innovent Biologics financial ratios help investors to determine whether Innovent Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Innovent with respect to the benefits of owning Innovent Biologics security.