Ihlas Holding (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.83
| IHLAS Stock | TRY 3.42 0.31 9.97% |
Ihlas |
Ihlas Holding Target Price Odds to finish over 3.83
The tendency of Ihlas Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 3.83 or more in 90 days |
| 3.42 | 90 days | 3.83 | nearly 4.78 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ihlas Holding to move over 3.83 or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.78 (This Ihlas Holding AS probability density function shows the probability of Ihlas Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ihlas Holding AS price to stay between its current price of 3.42 and 3.83 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.78 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.79 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Ihlas Holding will likely underperform. Moreover Ihlas Holding AS has an alpha of 1.822, implying that it can generate a 1.82 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ihlas Holding Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Ihlas Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ihlas Holding AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ihlas Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ihlas Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ihlas Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ihlas Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ihlas Holding AS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ihlas Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.82 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.79 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.31 |
Ihlas Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ihlas Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ihlas Holding AS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ihlas Holding AS is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Ihlas Holding AS appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Ihlas Holding AS has accumulated about 819.66 M in cash with (608.81 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.55. | |
| Roughly 13.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Ihlas Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ihlas Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ihlas Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ihlas Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.5 B |
Ihlas Holding Technical Analysis
Ihlas Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ihlas Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ihlas Holding AS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ihlas Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ihlas Holding Predictive Forecast Models
Ihlas Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ihlas Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ihlas Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ihlas Holding AS
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ihlas Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ihlas Holding AS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ihlas Holding AS is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Ihlas Holding AS appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Ihlas Holding AS has accumulated about 819.66 M in cash with (608.81 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.55. | |
| Roughly 13.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Ihlas Stock
Ihlas Holding financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ihlas Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ihlas with respect to the benefits of owning Ihlas Holding security.