CSHG Renda (Brazil) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 118.53
| HGRU11 Fund | 113.46 2.54 2.19% |
CSHG |
CSHG Renda Target Price Odds to finish below 118.53
The tendency of CSHG Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 118.53 after 90 days |
| 113.46 | 90 days | 118.53 | about 88.97 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CSHG Renda to stay under 118.53 after 90 days from now is about 88.97 (This CSHG Renda Urbana probability density function shows the probability of CSHG Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CSHG Renda Urbana price to stay between its current price of 113.46 and 118.53 at the end of the 90-day period is about 50.65 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CSHG Renda Urbana has a beta of -0.13. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding CSHG Renda are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, CSHG Renda Urbana is likely to outperform the market. Additionally CSHG Renda Urbana has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. CSHG Renda Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CSHG Renda
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CSHG Renda Urbana. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CSHG Renda Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CSHG Renda is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CSHG Renda's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CSHG Renda Urbana, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CSHG Renda within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
CSHG Renda Technical Analysis
CSHG Renda's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CSHG Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CSHG Renda Urbana. In general, you should focus on analyzing CSHG Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CSHG Renda Predictive Forecast Models
CSHG Renda's time-series forecasting models is one of many CSHG Renda's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CSHG Renda's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CSHG Renda in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CSHG Renda's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CSHG Renda options trading.
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