Home Federal Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.12
| HFBL Stock | USD 12.56 0.42 3.24% |
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Home Federal Target Price Odds to finish below 9.12
The tendency of Home Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 9.12 or more in 90 days |
| 12.56 | 90 days | 9.12 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Home Federal to drop to $ 9.12 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Home Federal Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Home Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Home Federal Bancorp price to stay between $ 9.12 and its current price of $12.56 at the end of the 90-day period is about 57.39 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Home Federal has a beta of 0.11. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Home Federal average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Home Federal Bancorp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Home Federal Bancorp has an alpha of 0.0428, implying that it can generate a 0.0428 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Home Federal Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Home Federal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Home Federal Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Home Federal Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Home Federal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Home Federal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Home Federal Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Home Federal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Home Federal Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Home Federal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Home Federal Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Home Federal Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 42.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 11th of November 2024 Home Federal paid $ 0.13 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 4179 shares by James Barlow of Home Federal at 12.55 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Home Federal Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Home Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Home Federal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Home Federal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 34.9 M |
Home Federal Technical Analysis
Home Federal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Home Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Home Federal Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Home Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Home Federal Predictive Forecast Models
Home Federal's time-series forecasting models is one of many Home Federal's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Home Federal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Home Federal Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Home Federal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Home Federal Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Home Federal Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 42.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 11th of November 2024 Home Federal paid $ 0.13 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 4179 shares by James Barlow of Home Federal at 12.55 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Home Federal Backtesting, Home Federal Valuation, Home Federal Correlation, Home Federal Hype Analysis, Home Federal Volatility, Home Federal History as well as Home Federal Performance. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Home Federal. If investors know Home will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Home Federal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.21) | Dividend Share 0.505 | Earnings Share 1.09 | Revenue Per Share 6.465 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) |
The market value of Home Federal Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Home that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Home Federal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Home Federal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Home Federal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Home Federal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Home Federal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Home Federal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Home Federal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.