HEDGE PALADIN (Brazil) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 96.74
| HDOF11 Fund | 100.00 0.00 0.00% |
HEDGE |
HEDGE PALADIN Target Price Odds to finish below 96.74
The tendency of HEDGE Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 96.74 or more in 90 days |
| 100.00 | 90 days | 96.74 | about 10.12 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of HEDGE PALADIN to drop to 96.74 or more in 90 days from now is about 10.12 (This HEDGE PALADIN DESIGN probability density function shows the probability of HEDGE Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of HEDGE PALADIN DESIGN price to stay between 96.74 and its current price of 100.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 61.58 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon HEDGE PALADIN has a beta of 0.1. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, HEDGE PALADIN average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding HEDGE PALADIN DESIGN will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally HEDGE PALADIN DESIGN has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. HEDGE PALADIN Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for HEDGE PALADIN
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HEDGE PALADIN DESIGN. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.HEDGE PALADIN Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. HEDGE PALADIN is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the HEDGE PALADIN's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold HEDGE PALADIN DESIGN, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of HEDGE PALADIN within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0092 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.10 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.77 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
HEDGE PALADIN Technical Analysis
HEDGE PALADIN's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. HEDGE Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of HEDGE PALADIN DESIGN. In general, you should focus on analyzing HEDGE Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
HEDGE PALADIN Predictive Forecast Models
HEDGE PALADIN's time-series forecasting models is one of many HEDGE PALADIN's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary HEDGE PALADIN's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards HEDGE PALADIN in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, HEDGE PALADIN's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from HEDGE PALADIN options trading.
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