Hercules Capital Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 20.81
| HCXY Stock | USD 24.85 0.07 0.28% |
Hercules |
Hercules Capital Target Price Odds to finish below 20.81
The tendency of Hercules Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 20.81 or more in 90 days |
| 24.85 | 90 days | 20.81 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hercules Capital to drop to $ 20.81 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Hercules Capital probability density function shows the probability of Hercules Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hercules Capital price to stay between $ 20.81 and its current price of $24.85 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.57 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Hercules Capital has a beta of -0.045. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Hercules Capital are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Hercules Capital is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Hercules Capital has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Hercules Capital Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Hercules Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hercules Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hercules Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hercules Capital Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hercules Capital is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hercules Capital's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hercules Capital, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hercules Capital within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.20 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Hercules Capital Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hercules Capital for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hercules Capital can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Hercules Capital generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Hercules Capital has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| On 30th of October 2024 Hercules Capital paid $ 0.3906 per share dividend to its current shareholders |
Hercules Capital Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hercules Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hercules Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hercules Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 144.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 98.9 M |
Hercules Capital Technical Analysis
Hercules Capital's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hercules Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hercules Capital. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hercules Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Hercules Capital Predictive Forecast Models
Hercules Capital's time-series forecasting models is one of many Hercules Capital's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hercules Capital's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Hercules Capital
Checking the ongoing alerts about Hercules Capital for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hercules Capital help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Hercules Capital generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Hercules Capital has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| On 30th of October 2024 Hercules Capital paid $ 0.3906 per share dividend to its current shareholders |
Additional Tools for Hercules Stock Analysis
When running Hercules Capital's price analysis, check to measure Hercules Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hercules Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Hercules Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hercules Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hercules Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hercules Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.