Home Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 43.87
| HBCP Stock | USD 46.79 0.34 0.73% |
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Home Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish below 43.87
The tendency of Home Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 43.87 or more in 90 days |
| 46.79 | 90 days | 43.87 | about 16.45 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Home Bancorp to drop to $ 43.87 or more in 90 days from now is about 16.45 (This Home Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Home Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Home Bancorp price to stay between $ 43.87 and its current price of $46.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 31.66 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Home Bancorp has a beta of -0.11. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Home Bancorp are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Home Bancorp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Home Bancorp has an alpha of 0.1556, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Home Bancorp Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Home Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Home Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Home Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Home Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Home Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Home Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Home Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Home Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Home Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Home Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Home Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Home Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 8th of November 2024 Home Bancorp paid $ 0.26 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Home Bancorp, Inc. Short Interest Down 7.9 percent in November |
Home Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Home Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Home Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Home Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 75.8 M |
Home Bancorp Technical Analysis
Home Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Home Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Home Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Home Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Home Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
Home Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Home Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Home Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Home Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Home Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Home Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Home Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 8th of November 2024 Home Bancorp paid $ 0.26 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Home Bancorp, Inc. Short Interest Down 7.9 percent in November |
Additional Tools for Home Stock Analysis
When running Home Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure Home Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Home Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Home Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Home Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Home Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Home Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.