Guidewire Software Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 168.25
| GWRE Stock | USD 176.03 3.97 2.31% |
Guidewire |
Guidewire Software Target Price Odds to finish below 168.25
The tendency of Guidewire Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 168.25 or more in 90 days |
| 176.03 | 90 days | 168.25 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Guidewire Software to drop to $ 168.25 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Guidewire Software probability density function shows the probability of Guidewire Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Guidewire Software price to stay between $ 168.25 and its current price of $176.03 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.85 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Guidewire Software has a beta of 0.72. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Guidewire Software average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Guidewire Software will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Guidewire Software has an alpha of 0.0081, implying that it can generate a 0.008144 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Guidewire Software Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Guidewire Software
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guidewire Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Guidewire Software Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Guidewire Software is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Guidewire Software's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Guidewire Software, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Guidewire Software within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.72 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.001 |
Guidewire Software Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Guidewire Software for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Guidewire Software can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 980.5 M. Net Loss for the year was (6.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 458.21 M. | |
| Guidewire Software has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 4420 shares by Michael Rosenbaum of Guidewire Software at 111.7457 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Guidewire Software Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Guidewire Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Guidewire Software's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Guidewire Software's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 82.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Guidewire Software Technical Analysis
Guidewire Software's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Guidewire Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Guidewire Software. In general, you should focus on analyzing Guidewire Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Guidewire Software Predictive Forecast Models
Guidewire Software's time-series forecasting models is one of many Guidewire Software's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Guidewire Software's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Guidewire Software
Checking the ongoing alerts about Guidewire Software for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Guidewire Software help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 980.5 M. Net Loss for the year was (6.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 458.21 M. | |
| Guidewire Software has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 4420 shares by Michael Rosenbaum of Guidewire Software at 111.7457 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Guidewire Software Backtesting, Guidewire Software Valuation, Guidewire Software Correlation, Guidewire Software Hype Analysis, Guidewire Software Volatility, Guidewire Software History as well as Guidewire Software Performance. For information on how to trade Guidewire Stock refer to our How to Trade Guidewire Stock guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Guidewire Software. If investors know Guidewire will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Guidewire Software listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.349 | Earnings Share 0.38 | Revenue Per Share 11.915 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.08 | Return On Assets (0.02) |
The market value of Guidewire Software is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Guidewire that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Guidewire Software's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Guidewire Software's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Guidewire Software's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Guidewire Software's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Guidewire Software's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Guidewire Software is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guidewire Software's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.