Grupo Financiero (Argentina) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 6,508

GGAL Stock  ARS 6,230  280.00  4.30%   
Grupo Financiero's future price is the expected price of Grupo Financiero instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Grupo Financiero Galicia performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Grupo Financiero Backtesting, Grupo Financiero Valuation, Grupo Financiero Correlation, Grupo Financiero Hype Analysis, Grupo Financiero Volatility, Grupo Financiero History as well as Grupo Financiero Performance.
  
Please specify Grupo Financiero's target price for which you would like Grupo Financiero odds to be computed.

Grupo Financiero Target Price Odds to finish below 6,508

The tendency of Grupo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move below current price in 90 days
 6,230 90 days 6,230 
about 81.76
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Grupo Financiero to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 81.76 (This Grupo Financiero Galicia probability density function shows the probability of Grupo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Grupo Financiero has a beta of 0.58. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Grupo Financiero average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Grupo Financiero Galicia will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Grupo Financiero Galicia has an alpha of 0.3354, implying that it can generate a 0.34 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Grupo Financiero Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Grupo Financiero

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Financiero Galicia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6,5086,5106,512
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5,8597,3047,306
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
6,8406,8426,844
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
6,2216,3456,468
Details

Grupo Financiero Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Grupo Financiero is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Grupo Financiero's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Grupo Financiero Galicia, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Grupo Financiero within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.34
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.58
σ
Overall volatility
444.01
Ir
Information ratio 0.14

Grupo Financiero Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Grupo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Grupo Financiero's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grupo Financiero's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.5 B

Grupo Financiero Technical Analysis

Grupo Financiero's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Grupo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Grupo Financiero Galicia. In general, you should focus on analyzing Grupo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Grupo Financiero Predictive Forecast Models

Grupo Financiero's time-series forecasting models is one of many Grupo Financiero's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Grupo Financiero's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Grupo Financiero in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Grupo Financiero's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Grupo Financiero options trading.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Grupo Stock

When determining whether Grupo Financiero Galicia is a strong investment it is important to analyze Grupo Financiero's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Grupo Financiero's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Grupo Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grupo Financiero's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Grupo Financiero is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Grupo Financiero's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.