GrafTech International (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.82
| G6G Stock | EUR 1.60 0.04 2.44% |
GrafTech |
GrafTech International Target Price Odds to finish below 0.82
The tendency of GrafTech Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 0.82 or more in 90 days |
| 1.60 | 90 days | 0.82 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GrafTech International to drop to € 0.82 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This GrafTech International probability density function shows the probability of GrafTech Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GrafTech International price to stay between € 0.82 and its current price of €1.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 39.27 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon GrafTech International has a beta of -0.54. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding GrafTech International are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, GrafTech International is likely to outperform the market. Moreover GrafTech International has an alpha of 1.1301, implying that it can generate a 1.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). GrafTech International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for GrafTech International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GrafTech International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GrafTech International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GrafTech International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GrafTech International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GrafTech International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GrafTech International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.54 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
GrafTech International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of GrafTech International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for GrafTech International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| GrafTech International is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| GrafTech International may become a speculative penny stock | |
| GrafTech International appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
GrafTech International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of GrafTech Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential GrafTech International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GrafTech International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 256.6 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 10.3 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 124 K |
GrafTech International Technical Analysis
GrafTech International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GrafTech Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GrafTech International. In general, you should focus on analyzing GrafTech Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
GrafTech International Predictive Forecast Models
GrafTech International's time-series forecasting models is one of many GrafTech International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary GrafTech International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about GrafTech International
Checking the ongoing alerts about GrafTech International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for GrafTech International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| GrafTech International is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| GrafTech International may become a speculative penny stock | |
| GrafTech International appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in GrafTech Stock
When determining whether GrafTech International is a strong investment it is important to analyze GrafTech International's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact GrafTech International's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding GrafTech Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out GrafTech International Backtesting, GrafTech International Valuation, GrafTech International Correlation, GrafTech International Hype Analysis, GrafTech International Volatility, GrafTech International History as well as GrafTech International Performance. For more detail on how to invest in GrafTech Stock please use our How to Invest in GrafTech International guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.