Fortuna Silver Mines Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.06
| FSM Stock | USD 4.32 0.09 2.04% |
Fortuna |
Fortuna Silver Target Price Odds to finish below 5.06
The tendency of Fortuna Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 5.06 after 90 days |
| 4.32 | 90 days | 5.06 | about 84.91 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fortuna Silver to stay under $ 5.06 after 90 days from now is about 84.91 (This Fortuna Silver Mines probability density function shows the probability of Fortuna Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fortuna Silver Mines price to stay between its current price of $ 4.32 and $ 5.06 at the end of the 90-day period is about 81.51 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Fortuna Silver has a beta of 0.19. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Fortuna Silver average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Fortuna Silver Mines will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Fortuna Silver Mines has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Fortuna Silver Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Fortuna Silver
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fortuna Silver Mines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fortuna Silver's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fortuna Silver Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fortuna Silver is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fortuna Silver's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fortuna Silver Mines, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fortuna Silver within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Fortuna Silver Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Fortuna Silver for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Fortuna Silver Mines can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Fortuna Silver Mines generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Fortuna Silver Mines has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 842.43 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (51.77 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 146.8 M. | |
| Fortuna Silver Mines has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 65.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Institutional investors may overlook Fortuna Mining Corp.s recent CA116m market cap drop as long-term gains remain positive |
Fortuna Silver Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Fortuna Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Fortuna Silver's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fortuna Silver's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 295.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 128.1 M |
Fortuna Silver Technical Analysis
Fortuna Silver's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fortuna Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fortuna Silver Mines. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fortuna Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Fortuna Silver Predictive Forecast Models
Fortuna Silver's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fortuna Silver's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fortuna Silver's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Fortuna Silver Mines
Checking the ongoing alerts about Fortuna Silver for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Fortuna Silver Mines help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Fortuna Silver Mines generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Fortuna Silver Mines has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 842.43 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (51.77 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 146.8 M. | |
| Fortuna Silver Mines has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 65.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Institutional investors may overlook Fortuna Mining Corp.s recent CA116m market cap drop as long-term gains remain positive |
Check out Fortuna Silver Backtesting, Fortuna Silver Valuation, Fortuna Silver Correlation, Fortuna Silver Hype Analysis, Fortuna Silver Volatility, Fortuna Silver History as well as Fortuna Silver Performance. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fortuna Silver. If investors know Fortuna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fortuna Silver listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.778 | Earnings Share 0.07 | Revenue Per Share 3.329 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.131 | Return On Assets 0.0404 |
The market value of Fortuna Silver Mines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fortuna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fortuna Silver's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fortuna Silver's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fortuna Silver's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fortuna Silver's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fortuna Silver's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fortuna Silver is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fortuna Silver's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.