First Merchants Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 26.79
| FRMEP Stock | USD 25.55 0.05 0.20% |
First |
First Merchants Target Price Odds to finish over 26.79
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 26.79 or more in 90 days |
| 25.55 | 90 days | 26.79 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Merchants to move over $ 26.79 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This First Merchants probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Merchants price to stay between its current price of $ 25.55 and $ 26.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.38 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon First Merchants has a beta of -0.0247. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding First Merchants are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, First Merchants is likely to outperform the market. Additionally First Merchants has an alpha of 0.0343, implying that it can generate a 0.0343 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). First Merchants Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Merchants
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Merchants. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Merchants Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Merchants is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Merchants' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Merchants, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Merchants within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
First Merchants Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Merchants for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Merchants can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| On 15th of November 2024 First Merchants paid $ 0.4688 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: First Merchants Co. Shares Acquired by Systematic Financial Management LP - MarketBeat |
First Merchants Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Merchants' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Merchants' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 59.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
First Merchants Technical Analysis
First Merchants' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Merchants. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Merchants Predictive Forecast Models
First Merchants' time-series forecasting models is one of many First Merchants' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Merchants' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Merchants
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Merchants for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Merchants help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| On 15th of November 2024 First Merchants paid $ 0.4688 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: First Merchants Co. Shares Acquired by Systematic Financial Management LP - MarketBeat |
Additional Tools for First Stock Analysis
When running First Merchants' price analysis, check to measure First Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of First Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.