Fox Factory Holding Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 33.01

FOXF Stock  USD 31.30  0.85  2.64%   
Fox Factory's future price is the expected price of Fox Factory instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Fox Factory Holding performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Fox Factory Backtesting, Fox Factory Valuation, Fox Factory Correlation, Fox Factory Hype Analysis, Fox Factory Volatility, Fox Factory History as well as Fox Factory Performance.
  
At this time, Fox Factory's Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The Fox Factory's current Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is estimated to increase to 718.63, while Price Book Value Ratio is projected to decrease to 7.65. Please specify Fox Factory's target price for which you would like Fox Factory odds to be computed.

Fox Factory Target Price Odds to finish below 33.01

The tendency of Fox Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 33.01  after 90 days
 31.30 90 days 33.01 
about 18.1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fox Factory to stay under $ 33.01  after 90 days from now is about 18.1 (This Fox Factory Holding probability density function shows the probability of Fox Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fox Factory Holding price to stay between its current price of $ 31.30  and $ 33.01  at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.25 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.05 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Fox Factory will likely underperform. Additionally Fox Factory Holding has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Fox Factory Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Fox Factory

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fox Factory Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fox Factory's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
28.6631.3233.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.1753.7456.40
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
112.16123.25136.81
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.110.320.57
Details

Fox Factory Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fox Factory is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fox Factory's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fox Factory Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fox Factory within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.41
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.05
σ
Overall volatility
3.92
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

Fox Factory Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Fox Factory for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Fox Factory Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Fox Factory Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from investing.com: Stifel lifts Fox Factory stock to Buy, sees opportunity for position-building

Fox Factory Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Fox Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Fox Factory's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fox Factory's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding42.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments83.6 M

Fox Factory Technical Analysis

Fox Factory's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fox Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fox Factory Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fox Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Fox Factory Predictive Forecast Models

Fox Factory's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fox Factory's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fox Factory's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Fox Factory Holding

Checking the ongoing alerts about Fox Factory for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Fox Factory Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Fox Factory Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from investing.com: Stifel lifts Fox Factory stock to Buy, sees opportunity for position-building
When determining whether Fox Factory Holding is a strong investment it is important to analyze Fox Factory's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Fox Factory's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Fox Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Is Automotive Parts & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fox Factory. If investors know Fox will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fox Factory listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.87)
Earnings Share
0.26
Revenue Per Share
32.862
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.085
Return On Assets
0.0219
The market value of Fox Factory Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fox that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fox Factory's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fox Factory's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fox Factory's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fox Factory's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fox Factory's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fox Factory is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fox Factory's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.