Four Seasons Education Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.38
| FEDU Stock | USD 10.40 0.05 0.48% |
Four |
Four Seasons Target Price Odds to finish below 4.38
The tendency of Four Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 4.38 or more in 90 days |
| 10.40 | 90 days | 4.38 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Four Seasons to drop to $ 4.38 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Four Seasons Education probability density function shows the probability of Four Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Four Seasons Education price to stay between $ 4.38 and its current price of $10.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.79 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Four Seasons has a beta of 0.34. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Four Seasons average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Four Seasons Education will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Four Seasons Education has an alpha of 0.0828, implying that it can generate a 0.0828 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Four Seasons Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Four Seasons
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Four Seasons Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Four Seasons' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Four Seasons Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Four Seasons is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Four Seasons' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Four Seasons Education, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Four Seasons within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Four Seasons Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Four Seasons for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Four Seasons Education can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Four Seasons generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Four Seasons Education Reports First Half of Fiscal Year 2025 Unaudited Financial Results |
Four Seasons Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Four Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Four Seasons' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Four Seasons' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 296 M |
Four Seasons Technical Analysis
Four Seasons' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Four Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Four Seasons Education. In general, you should focus on analyzing Four Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Four Seasons Predictive Forecast Models
Four Seasons' time-series forecasting models is one of many Four Seasons' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Four Seasons' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Four Seasons Education
Checking the ongoing alerts about Four Seasons for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Four Seasons Education help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Four Seasons generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Four Seasons Education Reports First Half of Fiscal Year 2025 Unaudited Financial Results |
Additional Tools for Four Stock Analysis
When running Four Seasons' price analysis, check to measure Four Seasons' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Four Seasons is operating at the current time. Most of Four Seasons' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Four Seasons' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Four Seasons' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Four Seasons to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.